Prophecies and Probabilities

If specific prophecies were fulfilled by the Messiah, does the science of probability consider this “proof” there is a God?

Anyone can make predictions—that is easy. Having them fulfilled is another story. The more statements you make about the future and the greater the detail, the better the chances are that you will be proven wrong.

For example, how difficult do you think it would be to indicate the precise kind of death that a new, unknown religious leader would experience a thousand years from today? Could you describe and predict a new method of execution not currently known—one that won’t even be invented for hundreds of years? That’s what David did in 1000 BC when he wrote Psalm 22.

Further, if you did think up 50 specific prophecies about some man in the future you will never meet, how difficult do you think it would be for that man to fulfill all 50 of your predictions? How hard would it be for him if 25 of your predictions were about what other people would do to him and were completely beyond his control?

It might be possible to arrange one or two of these prophecies, but it would be virtually impossible for any man to arrange and fulfill all these predictions in advance. If it can be proved that such prophecies were predicted of the Messiah hundreds of years in advance, and one man fulfilled all of them, then that man would logically have to be the Messiah.

God gave a great number of prophecies (more than 400) about the Messiah for at least two reasons. First, it would make identifying the Messiah obvious. And second, it would make an imposter’s task impossible. 

Now let us ask an intriguing question. If we assume some 456 prophecies are fulfilled in one person, what does the science of probability say about this? In brief, it says, if accurate predictions were made about a future Messiah and fulfilled years later by one person, this is reasonable proof^[1] that there is a God.

Here is why. The science of probability attempts to determine the chance that a given event will occur. Professor Emeritus of Science at Westmont College, Peter Stoner, has calculated the probability of one man fulfilling some of the major prophecies made concerning the Messiah. The estimates were worked out by 12 different classes of 600 college students.

The students carefully weighed all the factors, discussed each prophecy at length, and examined the various circumstances which might indicate that men had conspired together to fulfill a particular prophecy. They made their estimates conservative enough so that there was, finally, unanimous agreement even among the skeptical students.

But then Professor Stoner took their estimates and made them even more conservative. He also encouraged other skeptics or scientists to make their own estimates to see if his conclusions were more than fair. Finally, he submitted his figures for review to a Committee of the American Scientific Affiliation. Upon examination, they verified that his calculations were dependable and accurate in regard to the scientific material presented.^[2]

After examining eight different prophecies, Professor Stoner and his students conservatively estimated that the chance of one man fulfilling all eight prophecies was one in 10¹⁷.

To show how large the number 10¹⁷ is (a figure with 17 zeros), Stoner gave this illustration. Imagine covering the entire state of Texas with silver dollars to a level of two feet deep. The total number of silver dollars needed to cover the whole state would be 10¹⁷. Now, choose just one of those silver dollars, mark it, and drop it from an airplane. Then thoroughly stir all the silver dollars all over the state.

When that has been done, blindfold one man, and then tell him he can travel wherever he wishes in the state of Texas. But some time he must stop, reach down into the two feet of silver dollars, and try to pull up that one specific silver dollar that has been marked.

Now, the chance of his finding that one silver dollar in the state of Texas would be the chance the prophets had for eight of their prophecies coming true in any one man in the future.

Professor Stoner concluded: “The fulfillment of these eight prophecies alone proves that God inspired the writing of those prophecies to a definiteness which lacks only one chance in 10¹⁷ of being absolute.”^[3] Another way of saying this is that any person who minimizes or ignores the significance of the biblical identifying signs concerning the Messiah would be foolish.

But, of course, there are many more than eight prophecies. In another calculation Stoner used 48 prophecies (even though he could have used 456) and arrived at the extremely conservative estimate that the probability of 48 prophecies being fulfilled in one person is 10¹⁵⁷.

And how big is 10¹⁵⁷? In 10¹⁵⁷ years, an ant could actually move all the atoms in 600,000 trillion, trillion, trillion, trillion of our universes a distance of 200,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000 miles. He could do this moving one atom at a time, moving each atom a distance of 30 billion light years, and traveling only at the speed of one inch every 15 billion years!^[4]

This incredibly large number illustrates why it is impossible for anyone to have fulfilled all the Messianic prophecies by chance. In fact, a leading authority on probability theory, Emile Borel, states in his book, Probabilities and Life, that once we go past one chance in 10⁵⁰, the probabilities are so small it’s impossible to think they will ever occur.^[5] (10¹⁵⁷ is almost infinitely beyond 10⁵⁰.)

What all this means is it is impossible for these 48 prophecies to be fulfilled apart from divine prediction. This is proof that there must be a God who supernaturally gave this information. The question is, can it be shown that such prophecies do, in fact, exist?

In our book, “Knowing the Truth About Jesus the Messiah,” we examine several prophetic passages that give us specific statements about the Messiah. We invite you to secure a copy of that book and read it carefully. As you read through the passages ask yourself the following questions: Is this truly a prophecy about a future person? Does Jesus Christ fulfill it and no one else? How was it possible for each of these prophecies to find fulfillment in one man hundreds of years in the future? In other words, if each prophecy is admitted to be about the Messiah and Jesus Christ fulfills all the prophecies, isn’t this proof that Jesus is the Messiah?

After long years of studying messianic prophecies, scholars Franz Delitzsch and Paton Gloag concluded,

“So far as we can determine, these prophecies refer to the Messiah only, and cannot be predicated of another. The ancient Jews admit the Messianic character of most of them; although the modern Jews, in consequence of their controversy with the Christians, have attempted to explain them away by applications which must appear to every candid reader to be unnatural… these and other predictions have received their accomplishment in Jesus of Nazareth…. The combination of prophecies is sufficient to prove that Jesus is the Messiah….”^[6]

[Ed. note: This article is taken from our e-book “Knowing the Truth about Jesus the Messiah.” We offer it here for those of you who are curious about what prophecy might say about our God.]

Go Deeper

• Exploring the Hope of Jesus in the Book of Revelation Collection
• Inspiring Faith in Your Children and Grandchildren – Package Offer
• Women of Faith Book Collection

1. Proof: “…a demonstration of the truth of something” (Oxford American Dictionary). ↑
2. Peter W. Stoner, Science Speaks: Scientific Proof of the Accuracy of Prophecy in the Bible (Chicago: Moody Press, 1969), p. 4. ↑
3. Ibid., p. 107. ↑
4. Ibid., p. 109. ↑
5. Emile Borel, Probabilities and Life (New York: Dover, 1962), Chapters 1-3. ↑
6. Franz Delitzsch and Paton Gloag, The Messiahship of Christ (Minneapolis, MN: Klock and Klock, 1983), Book 2, pp. 123-124. ↑